From a global security and risk management perspective, 2026 is unlikely to be shaped by new wars alone. Instead, it will reflect the buildup of unresolved conflicts, political fragmentation and weaker international coordination. Together, these factors are driving more frequent crises and emergency situations across many regions, often with little warning.
The second Trump administration has influenced this environment through a more direct and interest-driven approach to foreign policy. Greater emphasis on national priorities and leverage has changed how U.S. engagement is seen in fragile states. When involvement becomes more conditional, local governments, armed groups and criminal networks tend to move quickly to protect their positions.This can create short periods of instability and raise risk for organizations operating in sensitive locations.
Across many conflict settings, different risks are increasingly overlapping. Armed violence continues, but it is more closely tied to political pressure and criminal activity, especially where state authority is weak or contested. International Crisis Group’s CrisisWatch 2026 outlook points to clear security deterioration during 2025 in several high-risk contexts, including Israel and Gaza, Lebanon, Sudan, Myanmar and Burkina Faso. In these places, coercion has become part of everyday governance and conditions can worsen quickly.
Risk is highest where conflicts continue without any realistic political settlement. Long periods of instability make emergency powers routine, give security forces wide discretion and allow armed groups to operate within civilian areas. Over time, the lines between fighters, political actors and civilians blur. In these settings, people face risk less because of what they do and more because of who they are thought to be connected to.
Economic pressure adds to these challenges. As global competition increases and aid budgets shrink, governments under strain are more likely to tighten controls rather than seek compromise. Detention risk is rising in countries where political sensitivity, internal security pressure or economic stress is high, including Turkey, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Venezuela, Pakistan, Ethiopia and Cuba. Risk often increases during leadership changes, political crackdowns or periods of international attention.
Kidnapping risk follows a similar pattern. Where weak governance overlaps with organized crime or insurgency, abduction becomes a deliberate tactic. According to Unity analysis, the highest kidnap risk in 2026 is concentrated in Nigeria, Haiti, Mexico, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Afghanistan. Groups involved in kidnapping closely watch international responses and when reactions are slow or uneven, risk increases. Large-scale departures by international actors can also reduce oversight and make these environments more dangerous.
Looking ahead, 2026 is likely to see more politically driven crises rather than incidents caused only by active fighting. Decisions to pause operations or relocate people will often be triggered by security warnings or changes in government behavior rather than visible violence. In fragile settings, risk will depend on how quickly uncertainty is exploited and how consistent international engagement remains.
In this environment, organizations need to plan earlier and respond faster. Unity supports clients operating in high-risk environments through political and security context analysis, risk assessment, evacuation planning and crisis response support. The goal is to help organizations understand risk early and make practical decisions as conditions change.
